Hot Hands and Random Chance

Rationalists tend to believe that the notion of 'hot hands' in sport are foolish notions that result from the average sports fan's failure to think rationally and to understand the true nature of probability. According to them, a hot (athletically, not sexually) basketball player who has hit his last 5 shots should be no more likely to the next one than his average shotting percentage would indicate. For such a rationalist or skeptical view see http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/10-04-07/#feature

The skeptics are incorrect.

I agree that probabalistically a hot player would be no more likely to hit the next shot - But this is the result of probability theory's inability to account for any behavior that falls outside the study of averages. Proabability theory is impovershed in this way, and a poor predictor of any events involving phenomena that falls outside its controlled experiments. This problem is componunded by its many of its advocates inability to properly understand the theory itself.
According to probability theorists, a player will hit an accuracy streak through chance alone. If I flip a coin enough times then odds are that eventually I will flip 'heads' 7 times in a row. This will look like a hot hand if I intend to hit 'heads'. But in reality, its just probable and will sort its itself out to 50/50 in time. There is no magic hand.

But, this ignores that shooting is a skill. There are better and worse ways to take shots. When someone is in the zone or has the magic hand his body is remembering accurately the best and minute details of the best physical position(or motion) to be in. When he hits many in a row, this position is constantly being reinforced and is thus easier for his body to remember and falls naturally and (often) unconsciously into place. That is, after all, why we practice - so our bodies will do the correct things naturally in reflexive situations.

When someone is in a cold streak, his body has forgotten the better motion. Physical memory is fleeting. Linguistic memory is more permanent as we can write things down and look back at it later. No such thing is possible with the body. At times, we either remember (or relearn it) or don't have it. Wittgenstein's Private Language Argument makes a similar point to this. He said there can be no non-social language that only one person could understand because there would be no way to know you are recursively referring to the same thing more than once. With private language also goes non0cncious body language.

Further, body motion during hot streaks is often non-conscious. Tennis players have no time to compute a serve being directed at them at professional level speeds. Not that it would really help them to think about it. Rather, their movement is all pre-reflexive habit born out of endless practice. Players who do hit cold streaks often complain about over thinking their game.

So, yes, hot hands do exist, and yes, I would bet on the player on a streak. All it takes is understanding that sports are skill-based and quite unlike coin tosses. I shouldn't really even have to point this out.

Rationalists are a proud lot and like to show average people the error in thinking about superstitious magic hands and streaks. Its part of what being an asshole is all about. But, if you are going to be arrogant, its best to be correct and undertstand the phenomena you are investigating.